Chris Shahabi

As a global citizen with great respect for American values and it’s entrepreneurial spirt I started a conversation with ChatGPT by asking a simple question.

What does the United States need to do to bring down its US $36 trillion dollars national dept?

ChatGPT said:

Hey Chris — great question, and a timely one. The $36 trillion U.S. national debt (and growing) is raising serious alarms. While the U.S. isn’t on the verge of a default right now, the concern about losing its top-tier credit rating or reaching a tipping point where interest payments alone dominate the federal budget is real.

Here’s what the U.S. could do to avoid a debt spiral and protect its creditworthiness without getting too politically tribal:

1. Rebalance Spending and Revenue

Tackle Mandatory Spending
Roughly 70% of federal spending is “mandatory,” including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. These programs are politically untouchable, but reforms like gradually raising retirement age, means-testing benefits for high earners, or negotiating prescription drug prices could ease long-term pressure.

Defense Spending Optimization
Defense is another giant chunk. Cutting it outright is unrealistic, but a smarter, leaner military budget — with less waste, better tech investment, and accountability — could free up billions.

Interest Payments are Ballooning
As rates rise, the cost of servicing the debt gets nasty — approaching a trillion dollars annually. Reducing the deficit isn’t just about the debt itself but making sure we don’t drown in interest payments.

2. Increase Revenues Without Killing Growth

Tax Reform, Not Just Tax Hikes
Raising taxes can backfire economically, but reforming the tax code to close loopholes, ensure fair corporate taxation, and reduce offshore evasion can bring in more revenue without hiking rates.

Carbon Pricing (Your World)
A carbon tax or emissions trading system could create a new revenue stream and help hit climate goals. This idea straddles fiscal responsibility and green innovation — the kind of win-win solution policy folks like.

Wealth Taxes (Controversial but On the Table)
Some suggest ultra-wealth taxes or minimum global corporate tax rates, like the OECD agreement. Even if implemented partially, these could contribute significant revenue.

3. Encourage Long-Term Growth

Debt-to-GDP ratio is the key metric — so if you grow GDP fast enough, even a large debt becomes manageable. That means:

• Immigration reform to boost the labor force
• Infrastructure investment to improve productivity
• Incentivizing innovation in sectors like AI, biotech, cleantech (👋 your lane again)
• Education and workforce retraining to future-proof the economy

4. Political Willpower and Credibility

One of the biggest threats isn’t purely economic — it’s political dysfunction. The U.S. has already lost its AAA rating from S&P (2011) and Fitch (2023), citing political brinkmanship around debt ceilings and budgeting. Moody’s is the last AAA holdout. The fix? Predictable, stable fiscal governance.

What Would Default Actually Mean?

Even a technical default (e.g., failing to raise the debt ceiling on time) would shake global markets, raise borrowing costs, and trigger credit downgrades. Think: recession, capital flight, and damage to the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status.

Bottom Line

Balancing the budget isn’t about a single magic bullet — it’s a combination of:

• Structural reform to spending
• Modernized, fair taxation
• Pro-growth policies
• Political functionality

It’s all doable, but tough choices will need to be made. The longer the delay, the more dramatic the solutions will have to be.

Then I asked a follow up question, can the United States meet these goals and by when?

ChatGPT said:

Short answer, Yes –  the United States can meet these goals, but whether it will is another story. It comes down to timing, leadership, and whether the political system can stomach long-term planning over short-term wins.

Let’s break it down:

Can the U.S. Balance Its Budget and Reduce the Debt?

In theory, yes. The U.S. economy is massive, resilient, and still the world’s reserve currency — which gives it more breathing room than any other country. The challenge isn’t capability, it’s coordination.

But to avoid hitting a point of no return (where interest payments outpace everything else), serious action is needed within the next 5 to 10 years. Think of it like this:

• Short-term (0–3 years): Stabilize the deficit — stop it from growing faster than the economy.
• Mid-term (3–7 years): Implement reforms that bend the cost curve — especially in healthcare and entitlement programs.
• Long-term (7–15 years): Shrink the debt-to-GDP ratio through growth, smart tax policies, and carbon/green innovation.

What’s Realistically Possible in Each Timeframe?

1. 0–3 Years: Stabilization

• Politically tough, but technically doable.
• Curb discretionary spending.
• Close some tax loopholes.
• Cap certain spending growth (e.g., federal hiring freezes, renegotiating contracts).

🎯 Goal: Slow down new borrowing and reduce deficit from ~6% of GDP to 3–4%.

2. 3–7 Years: Structural Fixes

• Gradual entitlement reform (raise retirement age, adjust cost-of-living calculations).
• Healthcare system improvements (e.g., digital health, preventative care, price transparency).
• Carbon pricing could kick in here and generate real revenue.
• Tax reform becomes less radioactive once the economy stabilizes.

🎯 Goal: Get to a primary budget surplus (where the gov spends less than it takes in, excluding interest).

3. 7–15 Years: Debt Reduction

• Once the deficit is under control, debt-to-GDP can fall naturally if GDP grows at even 2–3%.
• Innovations in green tech, AI, biotech, and infrastructure can supercharge productivity.
• Immigration reform could expand the labor force and offset aging demographics.

🎯 Goal: Reduce debt-to-GDP from ~120% to <90% over 10–15 years.

Big “Ifs” in the Room

• Political dysfunction: Without bipartisan cooperation, these timelines become fantasy. Gridlock over things like debt ceilings, government shutdowns, or “culture war” distractions make long-term planning really hard.
• Global shocks: Another COVID-type event, major war, or financial crash could derail everything.
• Voter sentiment: Americans don’t like taxes or benefit cuts. That tension will shape what’s feasible.

What Would Success Look Like?

If the U.S. hits these goals by, say, 2040, it can:

• Maintain global confidence in the dollar
• Keep interest payments manageable
• Avoid credit downgrades and preserve borrowing power
• Be seen as a fiscal grown-up again (which matters for soft power)

Final Thought

The U.S. doesn’t need to “pay off” its entire $36 trillion debt — just manage it wisely. Think of it like a mortgage on a growing house. If the value (GDP) goes up and the payments (interest) stay affordable, you’re good.

It’s a matter of political maturity, smart policy, and some guts. Doable? Absolutely. But time’s ticking.

My next question was about the value of the dollar

In light of these much-needed reforms what would happen if the world stopped trading in US dollars and the dollar lost its value?

ChatGPT said:

That’s the nightmare scenario — and it’s not just theoretical. If the U.S. dollar lost its reserve currency status, the ripple effects would be seismic. It wouldn’t just be an economic event — it’d be a fundamental reshaping of global power.

Let’s unpack what that would look like, why it matters, and how real the risk actually is.

Then I was intrigued to know what would happen if the World transitioned away from trading in the U.S. Dollar?

💥 1. Massive Drop in Global Demand for Dollars

Right now, the U.S. enjoys a kind of “cheat code”: global trade in oil, commodities, and finance mostly happens in dollars. This creates constant international demand for the dollar, which props up its value.

If countries stopped trading in USD — shifting to the euro, yuan, or even a BRICS alternative — that demand vanishes. The dollar would fall in value, fast.

📈 2. Inflation Spike at Home

A weaker dollar means imports get way more expensive: oil, food, electronics — all the stuff the U.S. buys from abroad. That fuels inflation, which erodes purchasing power and hits consumers hard.

The Fed would have to raise interest rates aggressively to fight that inflation, possibly triggering a recession.

💳 3. Interest Rates Skyrocket

The U.S. sells Treasury bonds to finance its debt. Right now, investors (including foreign governments) buy them because they’re safe and dollar-denominated.

If the dollar isn’t the world’s default currency, global buyers might demand higher yields (i.e., more interest) to take on the added risk. That would mean way more expensive borrowing for the U.S. government, businesses, and homeowners alike.

🏚️ 4. U.S. Loses Financial Superpowers

Today, America can run huge deficits, print money, and enforce sanctions globally because the dollar is the default financial plumbing of the world. Lose that status, and you lose:

• Sanction power
• Influence over global finance (via SWIFT, IMF, etc.)
• The ability to borrow at low rates basically forever

How Real Is This Risk?

It’s growing, but it’s not imminent.

Reasons the dollar still dominates:

• The U.S. economy is still huge and relatively stable.
• No other currency (including China’s yuan) has the liquidity, trust, and legal structure needed.
• Global investors still want safety, and U.S. Treasuries are the ultimate safe haven.

But…

• De-dollarization is real. BRICS countries are building trade settlement alternatives. China and Russia are trading in yuan and rubles. Even Europe wants more independence from the dollar system.
• U.S. political dysfunction — like debt ceiling fights and flirting with default — undermines confidence.
• Weaponizing the dollar through sanctions has pushed some countries to seek alternatives.

So no, the dollar won’t be dethroned tomorrow — but if the U.S. keeps mismanaging debt, weaponizing its currency, and ignoring global shifts, it could be a slow leak that becomes a rupture.

What Would It Mean for U.S. Citizens?

• Higher prices for everything imported.
• Much higher interest rates (mortgages, car loans, business loans).
• Shrinking dollar savings — your money buys less.
• Potential capital flight as investors move into other currencies or assets.
• Pressure on social programs as the government spends more just to pay off interest.

Can the U.S. Prevent This?

Absolutely. The key steps:

• Get debt under control to maintain creditworthiness.
• Avoid defaults and debt ceiling showdowns.
• Preserve rule of law and transparency — things China doesn’t offer.
• Lead in innovation, energy, and trade to keep the U.S. economically essential.

Ironically, a bold pivot into clean tech, AI, and infrastructure — the sectors you’re passionate about — could help anchor the dollar’s relevance.

Bottom Line

If the dollar lost its global status, the U.S. would face higher inflation, skyrocketing debt costs, and a dramatic loss of global influence.

It’s not inevitable — but the idea of the dollar being untouchable is outdated. This is a wake-up call, not just for fiscal policy, but for how the U.S. shows up on the world stage.

My final question was about US global competitiveness, the rise of digital currencies against the dollar, free market trade amongst new alliances such as BRICS and whether America would remain engaged.

ChatGPT said:

That’s a sharp question, Chris — and honestly, we’re watching this play out in slow motion already.

If other countries start out-innovating the U.S. and simultaneously build credible alternatives to the dollar, especially through something like a BRICS digital currency then yeah, the entire global financial and geopolitical balance could shift. It wouldn’t be a “fall off a cliff” moment, but more like an economic erosion: steady, slow, and painful.

Let’s take this in two parts: (1) What happens if the U.S. is out-innovated and replaced in global trade? and (2) Could the U.S. economy survive in an isolationist posture?

🧠 Part 1: What If Other Countries Innovate Better & Replace the Dollar?

A credible BRICS digital currency could be a game-changer — if they get it right.

• The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa — with others like Iran and Saudi Arabia sniffing around) is trying to challenge Western dominance.
• A digital BRICS currency backed by commodities (gold, oil, rare earths) could appeal to countries tired of U.S. sanctions, dollar dominance, and SWIFT control.
• If paired with serious innovation — e.g. AI, clean energy, biotech, fintech — they could draw trade, investment, and talent away from the U.S.

Implications:

• Dollar dethroned from global trade. U.S. loses its “exorbitant privilege” — the ability to borrow cheaply, run deficits endlessly, and weaponize finance.
• Capital flight. Global investors diversify out of U.S. assets — especially if growth slows and political risk rises.
• Export pressure. U.S. firms would face a less dollar-dominant world, making exports more complex and potentially less competitive.
  

🏝️ Part 2: Could the U.S. Economy Stand Alone?

In pure GDP terms, yes — the U.S. is massive and could survive as an “island.” But in reality, the cost of isolationism would be brutal.

Short-Term Isolation: Manageable but Painful

• Supply chain shocks. The U.S. depends on global imports for rare earths, semiconductors, tech components, and pharmaceuticals.
• Higher inflation. Less trade = higher input costs = rising consumer prices.
• Retaliatory tariffs. Trade wars (like those during the Trump era) raise costs for businesses and consumers — and create global instability.

Long-Term Isolation: Dangerous

• Innovation stagnates. Innovation thrives on collaboration, competition, and talent mobility. Cut off from the global brain trust? You fall behind.
• Dollar declines. With fewer countries using it, demand drops, interest rates rise, and deficits become unsustainable.
• Talent drain. If high-skilled immigrants stop coming and top talent leaves for more dynamic innovation hubs abroad, the U.S. starts bleeding human capital.

And here’s a key point: U.S. soft power (Hollywood, Silicon Valley, the Ivy League, the dollar, democracy) is just as powerful as its military. An isolationist U.S. starts to lose that influence — and that’s a harder thing to rebuild than a factory.

🔋 Flip Side: If the U.S. Doubles Down on Innovation and Cooperation

Instead of turning inward, the U.S. could:

• Lead in AI, cleantech, health tech (your backyard, Chris)
• Build a digital dollar or Fed-backed crypto to stay competitive
• Deepen alliances with democratic and emerging economies
• Create new trade pacts focused on sustainability and innovation

That would keep the dollar sticky, keep capital flowing in, and make the U.S. too valuable to “cancel” economically.

✍️ Bottom Line

Could the U.S. survive as an isolationist state? Technically, yes — but it would be a poorer, slower, less influential version of itself.

If BRICS nails a digital currency and becomes the hotbed of innovation, the U.S. would either have to catch up fast — or risk becoming a legacy power in a world that’s moved on.

Isolation in today’s hyperconnected, tech-driven world is a losing bet. But leadership in green innovation, digital infrastructure, and global collaboration? That’s how the U.S. keeps the crown.

I was fascinated by this conversation between me and AI and I encourage more people, especially our politicians to use it when making decisions that affects our planet and its 7 billion people.